Escalating Conflict in Eastern DRC: What’s Happening and Why It Matters
17:56 30.01.2025 (Updated: 18:13 30.01.2025)
© Getty Images / Leon Sadiki/City Press/Gallo Images
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The long-running conflict between the DRC government and the rebels has escalated in recent weeks. Local media report that M23 rebels have captured several towns, notably Goma, a city of two million. This escalation has resulted in the deaths of more than a hundred soldiers.
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is facing a major escalation in conflict as M23 rebels, allegedly supported by Rwanda, advance south after capturing Goma, the capital of North Kivu province. The group is now moving towards Bukavu in South Kivu province, aiming to expand its control. Fighting has resulted in heavy casualties, displacement of civilians, and diplomatic fallout between the DRC and Rwanda.
M23 Rebels—Who Are They?
M23 is a Tutsi-led rebel group and a direct offshoot of the CNDP rebel group. It launched its current insurgency in 2022, accusing the Congolese government of failing to integrate Tutsi communities into the army and administration, as promised in a peace agreement known as the March 23, 2009 Agreement (hence the name "M23") between the government and the CNDP.
The group also claims to protect Tutsis from Hutu militias like the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), which consists of Hutu fighters linked to the 1994 Rwandan genocide.
Timeline of Recent Events:
January 25:
M23 announced plans to seize Goma, warning the army and UN peacekeepers to surrender.
January 26:
The UN Security Council condemned the offensive, reporting casualties among peacekeepers and South African troops;
The DRC cut diplomatic ties with Rwanda, accusing it of direct involvement in the conflict;
M23 fighters entered Goma amid heavy gunfire, with reports of government troops and peacekeepers surrendering.
January 27:
M23 declared full control over Goma, though clashes continued;
Mass displacement was reported, with hospitals overwhelmed by the wounded.
January 28:
The Congolese government stated it still controlled parts of Goma;
Attacks targeted foreign embassies and the UN office in the DRC capital, Kinshasa;
The DRC formally demanded sanctions against Rwanda and its exclusion from peacekeeping missions.
January 29:
M23 seized Goma International Airport and began consolidating control;
Reports suggested they were preparing to advance towards South Kivu;
Rwandan President Paul Kagame held talks with US officials, discussing a ceasefire but not troop withdrawal;
DRC President Felix Tshisekedi, in an address to the nation, condemned international organizations' inaction amid clashes between the country's forces and the M23 rebel group.
January 30:
The AU Peace and Security Council called on rebel groups in eastern DRC to immediately cease hostilities;
The PSC proposed to hold a meeting on the situation in eastern DRC at the head of state and government level on the margins of the upcoming AU assembly in February;
The extraordinary SADC summit on the security situation in the DRC, initially scheduled for Thursday, will be held on Friday in the Zimbabwean capital Harare;
Rwandan President Paul Kagame said that South African troops, which are part of the SADC Mission in the DRC, have no place on the battlefield, adding that his country is ready to deal with any confrontation from Pretoria;
Rwanda supports a ceasefire across the eastern DRC, the Rwandan Foreign Ministry told a Western media outlet;
The EAC summit urged DRC's Tshisekedi to engage in dialogue with his armed opponents.
What is Rwanda's Involvement?
The DRC, UN, and Western countries accuse Rwanda of deploying troops and heavy weapons to support M23, based on UN evidence from 2022. Rwanda denies the claims, insisting its military actions are defensive against threats from the DRC-based FDLR militia. Rwanda has a history of military involvement in eastern DRC, dating back to interventions in the late 1990s.
What are Peacekeepers and Other Forces Doing?
UN peacekeepers (MONUSCO) had been supporting Congolese forces but have faced setbacks. Some peacekeepers have been killed, and others have surrendered or evacuated.
Southern African Development Community forces remain deployed in the region but have also suffered losses.
Private military contractors hired by the DRC to fight M23 have reportedly surrendered, with Rwanda claiming 289 Romanian mercenaries turned themselves in.
The UN mission withdrawal, initially planned, has been paused due to the worsening situation.
What Next?
With M23 solidifying its hold on Goma and moving towards Bukavu, tensions between the DRC and Rwanda continue to rise. Diplomatic efforts, including an East African Community summit, have so far yielded little progress. The conflict’s outcome will depend on whether regional and international actors can pressure both sides into negotiations or if military escalation continues.
Why Does It Matter?
The conflict in eastern DRC matters because it has far-reaching consequences beyond the region.
First, it threatens regional stability, with Rwanda’s alleged involvement increasing tensions between neighboring countries.
Second, it disrupts global supply chains for critical minerals like cobalt, coltan, and lithium, which are essential for electronics and renewable energy technologies. This could lead to rising prices and slow down technological advancements.
Last but definitely not least, the humanitarian crisis is severe, with millions displaced and widespread human rights violations. The longer the conflict continues, the greater the economic, geopolitical, and human toll.
