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Chocolate May Become More Expensive if Africa's Cocoa Crop Fails, Report Says

Cocoa fruit - Sputnik Africa, 1920, 30.09.2023
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Africa produces about 70% of the world's cocoa, with Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana dominating the market. Last year, due to fears that bad weather and crop disease will hurt the harvest in these countries, there was a 47% increase in cocoa prices, media revealed.
Chocolate could become even more expensive if the new cocoa harvest in West Africa would be low as analysts predict a third consecutive global shortage, the media reported.
Experts from the Dutch cooperative bank Rabobank and a financial services platform Marex reportedly suppose that the West African cocoa production is to fall in the 2023-24 season. Marex expects a global deficit of 279,000 tonnes of cocoa, which exceeds the previous two deficits together, the outlet revealed.
Such chocolate producers as Hershey Co. and Lindt & Spruengli highlighted that an increase in chocolate prices is already negatively affecting demand in Europe and Asia, the outlet noted.
"The current situation is looking relatively dire unless there is a dramatic improvement in the outlook. Further price increases could weigh on consumption," vice president of soft commodities for Asia at broker StoneX, Darren Stetzel was quoted as saying.
There are several reasons behind the expected fall in crops. One of them, according to the report, is an El Nino weather phenomenon, a climate factor that arises in the Pacific Ocean and shapes the weather all over the world, usually it means strong winds and rainfall patterns. The World Meteorological Organization said that there is a 55% likelihood that the phenomenon would occur in the second half of 2023.
In addition, African farmers are reportedly suffering from high costs and shortages of fertilizers and pesticides. Moreover, swollen-shoot disease of the plants, widespread in Cote d'Ivoire, also threatens the cocoa harvest, Steve Wateridge, head of research at Tropical Research Services, explained.
Apart from this, in May, an Oxfam survey of more than 400 cocoa farmers in Ghana found their net incomes had fallen by an average of 16 percent since the same period as world's biggest chocolate makers, including US companies Hershey, Mars and Mondelez in addition to Italy's Ferrero and Swiss peers Lindt & Spruengli and Nestle, failed on promises to improve pay for them.
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