The recent test of Russia's new Oreshnik intermediate-range hypersonic missile, targeting Ukraine's PA Pivdenmash defense industry facility, is a significant development with multiple interpretations, according to Dr. Legend Asuelime, a security and development studies expert and research fellow at the University of Johannesburg.
Dr. Asuelime believes that the test is not merely a technological achievement, but a complex geopolitical statement, reflecting Russia's response to Western involvement in the conflict and its determination to defend its perceived national security interests.
“Introducing new weapons serves as a demonstration of resilience in the face of Western sanctions and the entire interference in the war between [Russia] and Ukraine, which aims to cripple Russia's access to advanced technology and development,” he told Sputnik Africa.
The tactical impact, while potentially disruptive to Ukrainian defense production, also serves as a clear signal of “Russia's ability to respond proportionately to Western support for Ukraine, creating a deterrent effect,” highlighted the expert.
The South African expert further analyzed Russia's perspective on the escalating conflict, emphasizing Moscow's interpretation of strikes near or on its territory as evidence of NATO's direct involvement in a proxy war, rather than simply providing aid to Ukraine.
“This poses a lot of security concerns. For Russia, for instance, NATO's growing military footprint in Eastern Europe and its involvement in arming Ukraine. This is a bit long-standing fears of encirclement that Russia has talked about for years, even for decades, that NATO has expanded to encircle Russia and to bully Russia,” Dr. Asuelime explained.
He also touched upon the perceived contradictions within NATO's actions. According to him, while asserting the collective defense principle, which is only applicable to NATO members, the alliance concurrently justifies its support for Kiev as crucial for European stability.
This, Dr. Asuelime argued, highlights the complex geopolitical context of the conflict, a battle framed by Western leaders as one between democratic principles and authoritarian aggression.
The expert also suggested that the Biden administration's actions may be influenced by a desire to escalate before the return of Donald Trump to power. However, Dr. Asuelime cautions that this approach “increases the risk of miscalculation, border escalation, and protracted conflict.”