The AES emerged largely as a response to both sanctions imposed on the three states and the shared necessity to combat terrorism in the region, Nikita Panin, an expert at the Center for African Studies at the Higher School of Economics, told Sputnik Africa.
"The three states basically agreed on some sort of military coordination that they called the alliance [...] created initially as a response to the various sanctions and restrictions that were put on them, but also that they proceeded from the general and broader needs to combat terrorism in its multiple manifestations in the three states," he said.
While military collaboration has been the most tangible outcome so far, Panin suggested that this alone has defined the alliance's first year.
"Military coordination probably is the only factor that weighs in when we talk about the outcomes for the first year of the alliance, because we have seen some joint operations on the ground," he explained.
Looking ahead, Panin believes the alliance's success will hinge on broader social and economic integration. He emphasized that beyond military cooperation, the alliance must also focus on addressing terrorism, jihadism, and extremism — the very issues that brought the three nations together, in addition to the sanctions imposed by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
Panin also pointed to the lessons that can be drawn from ECOWAS, an organization with over five decades of history, so as not to repeat its mistakes.
"[ECOWAS] promised a lot to societies, it promised a lot to the governments. There were very ambitious plans such as having a common currency, such as fostering more integrational policies in different spheres, be it agriculture or something different. But all of that is hardly delivered," the expert noted.
The challenge for the AES, Panin suggested, lies in balancing national sovereignty with the need for greater cooperation.
"This is an important story to be kept because there was both resilience on the part of the member states because they cherish their sovereignty. In terms of the policies that they pursue, especially when it comes to trade and export," he concluded.