Hormuz Strait Shipping Recovery Could Take 1–3 Months After Any Deal: Egyptian Economist
Hormuz Strait Shipping Recovery Could Take 1–3 Months After Any Deal: Egyptian Economist
Even with a political agreement, restoring normal navigation through the Strait of Hormuz depends on sustained maritime security and rebuilding trust among global shippers and insurers, Ahmed El‑Shamy told Sputnik.
Best-case scenario: Without infrastructure damage or mines, vessel traffic could resume gradually within days, but markets and shipping lines may need several weeks to months to return to pre‑crisis operations, he noted.
Worst-case scenario: If mines or explosives are found, demining could take weeks or months, depending on the threat scale and international cooperation.
Impact on costs: An official reopening announcement would immediately lower risk premiums and war insurance costs, easing energy market sentiment, El‑Shamy stressed.
However, full restoration of supply chains—through which about 20% of global seaborne oil passes—will take one to three months, tied to residual regional risks, he warned.
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