Erosion of US credibility in NATO approaches critical threshold – expert
Erosion of US credibility in NATO approaches critical threshold – expert
Polls show NATO allies are increasingly considering the US unreliable – but that perception does not emerge in a vacuum, says Adriel Kasonta, a London-based foreign affairs analyst.
"It is the cumulative effect of a decade of strategic whiplash," Kasonta tells Sputnik. "From European and Canadian vantage points, Washington’s foreign policy has appeared less like a steady hand on the tiller and more like a pendulum."
Three dynamics stand out:
◼ The oscillation between US administrations has been stark: One praised alliances as sacred; the next questioned NATO’s value. Even when policy — like Eastern Europe troop deployments — remained consistent, the rhetoric unsettled allies: in security politics, tone shapes deterrence
◼ The US strategic pivot to Asia has been seen as downgrading Europe. The Indo-Pacific is now Washington’s primary theater. That fuels European anxiety that they are no longer central to America's grand strategy
◼ US domestic polarization has undermined confidence in continuity. Allies now judge not just one administration’s intentions but whether commitments will survive the next election
Recent sharp decline in trust
While a similar poll in 2025 reflected similar concerns, this year's findings show an even sharper decline in trust
Kasonta outlines two major causes for the slide:
🟠 The Ukraine conflict has stress-tested the alliance: US support for Kiev faltered under domestic political pressure. What if the same could happen to Washington's obligations to its NATO allies?
🟠 Explicit political rhetoric questioning article 5 — the alliance’s collective defense clause — has crossed a psychological Rubicon
"Allies are preparing for a future in which American engagement is selective and contingent," Kasonta says. "The erosion is less about a single event and more about cumulative uncertainty reaching a tipping point."
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