Rand on a Roll: Expert Explains Why South Africa’s Currency is Set for Its Best Year Since 2009
Rand on a Roll: Expert Explains Why South Africa’s Currency is Set for Its Best Year Since 2009
South Africa’s rand is heading for its strongest annual performance since 2009, up about 13% against the US dollar in 2025 — and the reasons go well beyond US politics.
The rand’s strength is rooted in solid fundamentals, Thabile Nkunjana, senior economist at the National Agricultural Marketing Council, told Sputnik Africa.
South Africa remains a major global player in key commodities such as gold and platinum, with elevated gold prices driving strong foreign exchange inflows and improving the country’s trade balance. At the same time, improved assessments from ratings agencies like S&P and Fitch have boosted investor confidence.
Crucially, the rand’s gains are broad-based. As Nkunjana pointed out, it has strengthened not only against the dollar, but also “against the likes of the pounds, the euros,” underscoring that this is a global vote of confidence rather than a single-country effect.
Domestic policy has also helped. The South African Reserve Bank’s commitment to keeping inflation within a 3–6% target range has supported macroeconomic stability at a time of global uncertainty.
“At least for now, we're seeing some positive developments, irrespective of what is happening in the US,” Nkunjana said.
Looking ahead, sustained growth of 1.5–2% could reinforce these gains and spill over into the wider SADC region, particularly through agriculture, trade infrastructure and regional export markets.
Increased intra-African financing and freer trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area could further strengthen local currencies and reduce dependence on the US dollar — though progress will require steady, coordinated reforms.
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