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From Ukraine Truce to Pretoria-Washington Crisis: How One Week Redefined Global Alliances

From Ukraine Truce to Pretoria-Washington Crisis: How One Week Redefined Global Alliances
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The proposed Trump-Putin ceasefire from the March 18 phone call reshapes the Ukrainian conflict —but at what cost to global order? Meanwhile, US-South Africa relations deteriorate after Ambassador Rasool’s expulsion. AfroVerdict joins two experts to analyze how both crises redefine power, alliances, and Africa’s place in a fractured world.
The 18 March phone call between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin resulted in a significant 30-day ceasefire agreement for the Ukrainian conflict, marking a potential diplomatic turning point.
The Kremlin's statement outlined mutual concessions including humanitarian measures like prisoner exchanges and protections for encircled troops in the country's Kursk region, alongside reciprocal commitments to pause strikes on energy infrastructure.
The "ceasefire represents a rare moment of US-Russia alignment", according to Dr. Nicodemus Minde, researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, Kenya.

"Moscow has consistently emphasized its security concerns in Ukraine, particularly regarding Western military support to Kiev," Dr. Minde notes.

He observes that Russia's insistence on halting arms shipments reflects its longstanding position about NATO expansion in the region.
The ceasefire agreement establishes bilateral working groups to address Black Sea security and other issues, potentially creating new channels for conflict resolution.

"What makes this notable," Minde explains, "is that it shows both powers prioritizing direct diplomacy over multilateral frameworks. For African nations, this underscores the importance of developing independent diplomatic capacity in this evolving landscape."

The ceasefire's implementation will test whether this temporary understanding can create space for more lasting solutions, with Russia having consistently framed its actions as defensive measures against what it views as existential security threats.
As Washington engages Moscow, its relationship with Pretoria has deteriorated dramatically. The expulsion of South Africa’s ambassador to the US, Ebrahim Rasool, following his criticism of the Trump administration’s "isolationist and erratic" foreign policy regarding South Africa's Land Expropriation Act, has escalated tensions.
The US retaliated by terminating most USAID programs in South Africa and threatening its exclusion from the AGOA trade pact, which grants duty-free access to US markets.
While Rasool's comments were "the spark", "the fuel" was "South Africa’s refusal to align with Washington against Russia and China, Mikatekiso Kubayi, senior researcher at the Institute for Global Dialogue, explains. According to him, "the ANC sees BRICS as its future, and the US is making an example of them".

"The ANC is trapped between its BRICS commitments and domestic economic realities. The U.S. is betting that economic pain will force a policy shift, but South Africa may instead deepen ties elsewhere," Kubaiy says.

To hear more analytics on the presidents' phone call and US-South Africa tensions, check out the entire episode of the AfroVerdict podcast, brought to you by Sputnik Africa.
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