What Awaits Syria in 2025?
© AP Photo / Hussein Malla
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The fall of the Assad regime in Syria has arguably become the most significant event of 2024 for the Middle East. An experienced expert in regional politics and security affairs, Ali Rizk gave Sputnik a detailed analysis of what happened, the players involved and the future that awaits Syria in the coming months and years.
The US and its allies “masterminded” the Syrian rebel offensive, which began on November 27 and quickly turned into a route, taking “advantage of the fact that Syria was a weak state,” Ali Rizk told Sputnik.
Syria became a “weak and fragile state” in the course of a long civil war backed by foreign powers, and was “further weakened” amid recent “Israeli wars in the region, particularly against Hezbollah,” which forced the Lebanese militia to withdraw its crack fighters, Rizk explained.
Cacophony of Divergent Interests
All foreign actors involved in the Syrian crisis “agreed when it came to getting rid of former President Bashar Assad,” but beyond that, “when it comes to what comes next I think that they don’t agree,” the observer said, warning that this could provoke strife in the months and years to come.
Israel’s aims are “about cutting off the logistical supply line linking Iran to Hezbollah and diminishing Iran’s influence” in Syria in general.
Turkey sees the situation “as a way to retain or return to the glory days of the Ottoman Empire” and advance its goal of blocking greater autonomy for the Kurds, Rizk said.
The US, besides its long-running efforts to turn Syria into a failed state by occupying key energy and food-producing areas, seeks, at least officially, to prevent ISIS’s* resurgence, while walking in lockstep with Israel on Iran.
What’s in Store for 2025?
There are three main scenarios for Syria in 2025, Rizk says.
1.
Syria shatters on ethnic and religious grounds, with Daesh* taking advantage of the chaos, Israel grabbing additional territories for itself, and Turkey aiding allies in a conflict with the Kurds.2.
“A Taliban**-like regime in Syria, i.e. a Salafi jihadi takeover” – possible if hard-line elements in HTS get their way.3.
A unified Syria aligned to Turkey, at peace with Israel and anti-Iran - which Rizk says is the preferred scenario for Washington, Tel Aviv and Ankara.“A lot will be determined by what President-elect Trump chooses to pursue,” Rizk emphasized, pointing to the potential divergences between Washington and its allies on what policy to pursue.
Ultimately, the analyst fears "Syria is not going to remain in its current state" in the months and years to come, given the risks of additional Israeli conquests, and fresh violence between the new Turkey-aligned government and the Kurds.
* * Daesh (aka ISIS) is a terrorist organization banned in Russia and many other states
**An organization under UN sanctions for terrorist activities
