https://en.sputniknews.africa/20231030/africa-likely-to-shift-to-services-bypassing-manufacturing-development-by-2050-study-1063185109.html
Africa Likely To Focus On Services Rather Than Manufacturing By 2050, Study Reveals
Africa Likely To Focus On Services Rather Than Manufacturing By 2050, Study Reveals
Sputnik Africa
A new paper from the Center for Global Development think-tank, 'Is Manufacturing Destiny? On the Dynamics of Future Sectoral Shares and Development', aims to... 30.10.2023, Sputnik Africa
2023-10-30T09:57+0100
2023-10-30T09:57+0100
2023-10-30T11:21+0100
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African countries are less likely to develop via expansion of their manufacturing industries and will concentrate instead on improving their service sectors, the report from the Center for Global Development (CGD) predicted.The report predicted that by 2050, most workers in low-income and lower-middle-income countries (which the World Bank considers most African nations to be) will be employed in agriculture (50.4 percent and 28.7 percent of all workers, respectively), and trade services such as food, financial, business and social services (37.1 percent and 53.5 percent, respectively).By the middle of the century, manufacturing, in turn, will account for 7.7 percent of employed workers in low-income countries and 9.9 percent in lower-middle-income countries.In collating its data, the Center questioned the universally held belief that economic growth is driven by the development of manufacturing, adding that "Africa appears to be following a different pattern of structural transformation from the 'norm'."The researchers also concluded that agriculture can partially offset the declining share of manufacturing in African countries.The authors of the study also told the UK media that many African and Asian countries will switch directly from agriculture to the service sector, where jobs will expand rapidly, especially thanks to new technologies.For upper-middle-income and high-income countries, the report's authors predicted a decline in the share of workers in manufacturing and agriculture and an increase in the share of workers in services. In particular, the share of workers in agriculture in high-income countries will, in effect, be zero by 2050, the report projected.China may be an exception, further increasing its share of manufacturing output among the 59 countries modeled in the study, from 30 percent in 2018 and 10.5 percent in 1975 to 43.8 percent in 2050. The study's authors said that Beijing will continue to dominate global manufacturing and move into higher-value sectors.
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Africa Likely To Focus On Services Rather Than Manufacturing By 2050, Study Reveals
09:57 30.10.2023 (Updated: 11:21 30.10.2023) A new paper from the Center for Global Development think-tank, 'Is Manufacturing Destiny? On the Dynamics of Future Sectoral Shares and Development', aims to forecast what the world's economies will be doing and which will offer the best employment opportunities up until the year 2050.
African countries are less likely to develop via expansion of their manufacturing industries and will concentrate instead on improving their service sectors, the
report from the Center for Global Development (CGD) predicted.
The report predicted that by 2050, most workers in low-income and lower-middle-income countries (which the World Bank considers most African nations to be) will be employed in agriculture (50.4 percent and 28.7 percent of all workers, respectively), and
trade services such as food, financial, business and social services (37.1 percent and 53.5 percent, respectively).
By the middle of the century, manufacturing, in turn, will account for 7.7 percent of employed workers in low-income countries and 9.9 percent in lower-middle-income countries.
In collating its data, the Center questioned the universally held belief that
economic growth is driven by the development of manufacturing, adding that
"Africa appears to be following a different pattern of structural transformation from the 'norm'."The researchers also concluded that agriculture can partially offset the declining share of manufacturing in African countries.
"In terms of our analysis for the future prospects of today’s poorer countries, this suggests that agriculture may potentially be a source of convergence in African countries, which are currently characterized by extremely low levels of agricultural productivity and low historical investment in locally valuable innovation. Increasing relative productivity in this sector may partially offset lower and shorter peak-manufacturing shares," the report read.
The authors of the study also told the UK media that many African and Asian countries will switch directly from agriculture to the service sector, where jobs will expand rapidly, especially thanks to new technologies.
"This forecast might seem implausible: countries have historically developed and become rich by shifting the composition of their production into manufacturing (and eventually out of manufacturing and into services). But we argue there is reason to think that this is a realistic possibility," the authors wrote.
For upper-middle-income and high-income countries, the report's authors predicted a decline in the share of workers in manufacturing and agriculture and an increase in the share of workers in services. In particular, the share of workers in agriculture in high-income countries will, in effect, be zero by 2050, the report projected.
China may be an exception, further increasing its share of manufacturing output among the 59 countries modeled in the study, from 30 percent in 2018 and 10.5 percent in 1975 to 43.8 percent in 2050. The study's authors said that
Beijing will continue to dominate global manufacturing and move into higher-value sectors.
