The ongoing escalation of the war in eastern DRC is the latest chapter in a centuries-old struggle shaped by colonial-era borders and regional power dynamics, Maya Nikolskaya, Acting Director of the Center for African Studies at Russia's MGIMO University, told Sputnik Africa.
"What we have here is a conflict that goes back centuries, essentially back to the day when the boundaries between Rwanda, DRC, Burundi, and other countries in the Great Lakes region were drawn in a different way, and sometimes they were not drawn at all," she noted.
Rwanda, with its strong military and geopolitical ambitions, is one of the key regional players, according to the scientist. Beyond state actors, the war involves a web of militant groups and warlords, further complicating any resolution.
The Global Impact: A Blow to Supply Chains and Economic Stability
The DRC is a critical supplier of rare earth minerals, diamonds, and gold—resources essential for modern technology and industrial production. The conflict disrupts global supply chains, pushing prices higher, but the instability benefits only a handful of major players.
"The consequences for this kind of escalation are obviously going to be dire. Most importantly, in terms of the global supply chains and the prices. For their rare earth minerals, but also for things like diamonds or gold. Well, obviously the countries that stand to benefit the most will probably be the ones that lead in terms of world production of these minerals," Nikolskaya explained.
Although countries like China, the US, India, and even Russia may see short-term gains, prolonged instability threatens technological progress and economic stability worldwide, she cautioned.
The Future of the Conflict: A Faster, Bloodier War or a Fragile Peace?
This war is different from previous ones, not only because of its scale but also due to technological advancements. Drones and modern weaponry make the fighting more intense and rapid.
The warring sides purchase drones from their respective Western and Middle Eastern partners, she explained.
"It is going to be, even to an extent, it is going to be more bloody and it is going to be much faster than the previous two wars that happened in this region," Nikolskaya warned.
At the same time, diplomatic negotiations, such as the Luanda and Nairobi peace tracks, could pressure Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi into making territorial concessions to Rwanda. The East African Community itself faces possible fractures, mirroring tensions seen in West Africa between ECOWAS and the Sahel states that have left the bloc, the expert compared.
"We may even see a partial disintegration of the East African community as a bloc because it's very similar to what has happened in the Sahel already between the Confederation of Sahel states and ECOWAS, when the southern states say, Look, I trust you to use a regional group with some of my problems, and you fail to resolve them, so I'm done; I have to quit. This is one of the scenarios that we may see unfold," Nikolskaya elaborated.
The Shadow of Blood Minerals
The European Union, heavily reliant on Congolese minerals, is eager to see the conflict end. However, as Nikolskaya pointed out, the mining operations fueling this war are tainted by violence and illegal control. With M23 rebels controlling key mining areas, the global market is complicit in a trade that funds warlords and militias.
"It means you're actually exporting not only blood diamonds, but also blood cobalt, blood lithium, blood copper from Zambia and the DRC as well. So this is how bad the situation can get," she concluded.