Ukrainian, Russian, and Western mainstream and social media are actively discussing videos of large-scale raids in Kiev, Dnepropetrovsk, Odessa, Lvov, Khmelnytskyi, Krivoy Rog, Vinnitsa and other major Ukrainian cities of men in military fatigues, some wearing balaclavas or bandanas covering their faces, surrounding draft-age men and checking their documents.
On some occasions, crowds of angry bystanders seem to get the upper hand against the people-snatchers, forcing recruiters and cops to vacate premises to shouts of "Shame! Shame!" Elsewhere, men aren't so lucky, with automatic rifle-armed cops clad in black scuffling with detainees and stuffing them into waiting vans.
“Their problems are traditional: they don’t have enough personnel. They’re grabbing everyone, even those with an official exemption from service – which isn’t always possible to prove,” Institute of CIS Countries senior researcher Alexander Dudchak told Sputnik, commenting on the dramatic images.
The thuggish methods on display are par for the course, but the scale of the raids seems to be a first, particularly when it comes to major cities, says Dudchak, who is also an expert with ‘Another Ukraine’ – a political and social movement consisting of Ukrainian politicians, journalists, and others seeking an end to the NATO-fueled Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The circle of men eligible for avoiding the draft is actually quite small and has been written into law, potentially making draft-age men an endangered species in Ukraine if the conflict continues.
"Every lawmaker has the right to reserve two people from the draft, and representatives of big business, as 'respected investors,' also have the opportunity not to participate in the war." Then there are "employees of non-governmental organizations, international funds," Dudchak said.
Desperate times may be calling for desperate measures, and the mobilization raids seem to be a sign of mounting problems on the battlefield, according to the observer, who pointed to the Russian military’s recent push to drive Ukrainian forces out of Kursk region and advances in Donetsk and Kharkov.
“Of course, we should not rejoice too early, because despite their serious failures, including places where some units are leaving the front line altogether, with such measures [mass raids and forced mobilization, ed.] they will be able to gather a crowd and hold the defense for some time. I can’t say for how long, but now they will have the opportunity to ‘solve’ their current problems at the expense of the crowd they recruit in this way,” Dudchak said.
More broadly, Dudchak expects an overall shift in Kiev’s tactics, saying both the Zelensky regime’s rhetoric and practice will shift “from attempts to organize a counteroffensive to blind defense. It’s quite possible that this will suit them, and the West, well – holding on to what they have and freezing the front line.”
Asked whether the current wave of forced mobilization may be Kiev's way of trying to put the conflict into hibernation mode, in light of the signals coming from Kiev of potential talks with Moscow, Dudchak expressed concerns that the latter may be a new attempt to "pull the wool over Russia's eyes," to agree a temporary freeze in hostilities that would inevitably resume at a later date.
The Ukraine crisis today - described by many observers as a proxy war between NATO and Russia using Ukraine as a pawn, began as a civil war in the Donbass in the spring of 2014, which Moscow spent years trying to mediate using the so-called Minsk peace accords - which proposed a return of Ukrainian control over the rebellious Donetsk and Lugansk regions in exchange for their broad constitutional autonomy within Ukraine. Kiev dragged its feet on the Minsk deal for over seven years, and in 2022, Ukraine's former president, the ex-chancellor of Germany and the former president of France each admitted that Minsk was a ploy designed to give Kiev an opportunity to rearm in preparation for a conflict against Russia.