AfCFTA is set to unlock unprecedented economic opportunities across the continent, boosting intra-African trade by 45% by 2045, according to recent estimates by the UN Economic Commission for Africa.
Industries Poised for Growth
AfCFTA is expected to have the most significant impact on agriculture, manufacturing, and services. The agrifood sector is projected to see a 60% increase in trade, while industrial exports are expected to rise by 48%, with key growth areas including chemicals, plastics, pharmaceuticals, and vehicle manufacturing. The service sector is also set to expand by 34%, with major gains in tourism and transportation.
Several African nations are poised to see dramatic increases in industrial exports. Cameroon’s exports to African partners are projected to rise by 141%, Ethiopia’s by 104%, Namibia’s by 66%, and Zimbabwe’s by 59%. This reflects a broader shift towards value-added production, moving away from reliance on raw material exports, the report noted.
Addressing Poverty and Inequality
While AfCFTA is expected to contribute to poverty reduction, the impact will be uneven. The reported suggests that poverty will decrease across urban and rural areas, but disparities will remain. Women, who dominate the informal trade sector, may face challenges in accessing the benefits of formalized trade, necessitating targeted policies to support female entrepreneurs.
To maximize the benefits of AfCFTA, African governments must invest in education, industrial development, and financial support for small businesses, particularly for women and rural communities, the UN underscored. With the right policies in place, AfCFTA has the potential to transform Africa into a globally competitive economic powerhouse.