As 2024 comes to a close, the year stands out for its significant geopolitical shifts. In an interview with Sputnik Africa, Oscar van Heerden, Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for African Diplomacy and Leadership at the University of Johannesburg, highlighted key developments that shaped the year, particularly focusing on Russia's growing influence in Africa and South Africa's evolving domestic and international policies.
Russia's Expanding Footprint in Africa
According to van Heerden, Russia's involvement in Africa grew significantly in 2024, spurred by its efforts to counter Western sanctions resulting from the conflict with Ukraine.
"Because of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the sanctions that were placed on Russia by the West, I think Russia realized that it needed to begin to foster better and stronger relations with Africa," he noted.
Events like the Russia-Africa Summit and BRICS engagements were pivotal in strengthening these ties.
"You see more and more South African government delegations going to Russia... there’s more regularity in terms of the relationship that’s building up between Russia and Africa," Van Heerden observed.
Domestic Progress: No Loadshedding and Infrastructure Revitalization
On the home front, South Africa saw remarkable progress in addressing electricity and infrastructure challenges. For the first time in years, the country enjoyed over 220 days without loadshedding. This, according to van Heerden, stemmed from decisive actions, including leadership changes at the electricity utility and improved collaboration between the presidency and the private sector.
"The firing of a number of people, the cleaning of the house in terms of power station managers... for the first time in a long time, a very direct partnership between the presidency and private sector players," he reckoned.
Additionally, significant improvements in public transport, particularly rail services, marked a return to pre-COVID commuter levels.
Africa's Ascendancy in Global Governance
South Africa’s chairing of the G20 and the African Union’s inclusion in the group were other major milestones.
"The ascendancy of the African Union into the G20 formation is another big plus for the continent," Van Heerden emphasized.
He expects South Africa to leverage this platform in 2025 to advocate for issues like debt cancellation, equitable trade, and climate finance.
AGOA and South Africa's Sovereignty: A Delicate Balance of Trade and Foreign Policy
The AGOA (African Growth and Opportunity Act) agreement has been a key part of South Africa's trade relations with the US, but the potential threat of its withdrawal has raised concerns. The professor pointed out that, while South Africa values the preferential trade benefits, it won't sacrifice its foreign policy sovereignty to maintain them.
"If you sell your soul... then you are just a banana republic," he said.
The Path Forward: Balancing Global Alliances
Van Heerden underscored the strategic positioning of Africa in global geopolitics, avoiding an allegiance solely to the East or West.
"It would be folly for Africa to want to choose to either be on the side of the East, which is Russia-Sino, or to be only on the side of the West. Africa is in a position now where it is beginning to say we want the best of both worlds," he said.
As South Africa navigates its role as a G20 leader and strengthens ties within BRICS, van Heerden predicted a productive year ahead, emphasizing the importance of maintaining sovereignty in the face of external pressures.