The global economy is becoming increasingly reliant on the BRICS group of emerging economies to drive growth, according to the latest forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Countries like China, India, Brazil, and Russia are expected to account for a larger share of global expansion over the next five years as the contribution from advanced Western nations declines. The new predictions emphasized the growing role of emerging markets in shaping the future of the world economy.
In its updated projections, the IMF has revised down the expected growth contributions from G7 economies, such as the US, Germany, and Japan, while increasing the share attributed to BRICS nations.
China is forecasted to be the single largest driver of global growth through 2029, with its 22% share of global expansion surpassing the combined contribution of all G7 nations, according to Bloomberg calculations based on the IMF data. India, another BRICS powerhouse, is expected to add nearly 15% of total global growth, making it the second-largest contributor after China.
Notably, some lower-income countries like Egypt and Vietnam are forecasted to contribute as much to global growth as advanced economies like Germany, Japan, and the UK. The projections also highlight that the G7’s smaller economies, such as Canada and Italy, will contribute less than 1% to global growth over the same period, underscoring the growing economic clout of populous, emerging nations.
The IMF’s forecasts are based on purchasing power parity, a measure that adjusts for price differences across countries and tends to give more weight to economies with larger populations, such as China and India. This shift signals a potential rebalancing of global economic power as wealthier nations struggle to keep pace with the rapid expansion seen in the developing world.