Russian relations with South Africa will remain strong despite the ruling party, the African National Congress (ANC), losing the parliamentary majority, according to Vsevolod Sviridov, an expert at the National Research University Higher School of Economics' Center for African Studies. South Africa remains Russia's most significant sub-Saharan African partner.
Sviridov emphasized that "the prospects for Russian-South African relations are positive in any case."
He also noted that during Jacob Zuma's presidency, one of the key areas of his foreign policy centered on BRICS and was more oriented toward the East. Zuma, the leader of the opposition party uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK), is considered by some observers the most Russia-friendly president in South Africa's history.
"Despite coming in third, Zuma's party performed the best," Sviridov said.
Discussing the recent election results, Sviridov explained that the ANC is predicted to lose its majority in the 400-seat National Assembly, the lower house of parliament. Preliminary results show that the ANC received 40.2% of the vote, the Democratic Alliance (DA) garnered 21.6%, the MK received 14.7%, and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) received 9.4%. Less than 4% of the vote went to other parties. According to local consultancy Krutham, the ANC could secure 168 seats, the DA 87 seats, the MK 48 seats, and the EFF 40 seats in total. In this scenario, the ANC will have to form a coalition government or seek parliamentary support for its minority administration.
Sviridov described the position of former president Jacob Zuma, who proposed that in the event that President Cyril Ramaphosa resigned, the ANC and MK might establish a coalition government.
"There will now be extended inter-party negotiations to create a new power-sharing configuration," Sviridov explained, noting that such a scenario is typical for a party that acknowledges underperformance in an election.
According to Sviridov, President Ramaphosa is likely to stay in office, as Zuma's term concluded amidst instability and a severe political crisis.
"A similar crisis now could have terrible repercussions, compromising the legitimacy of the current president. So, without significant changes, everything will probably continue in an inertial scenario," he said.
The election results will also determine the new National Assembly and the legislative bodies of all nine provinces. Within 14 days of the results being announced, the National Assembly must elect a new President of the Republic from among its members. A candidate must secure more than half of the total votes to be elected.