Ukraine Conflict Not Profitable for PMCs Compared to Other Conflict Zones, US Security Firm Says

The conflict in Ukraine is not as profitable for private military companies (PMCs) compared to work opportunities in other combat zones, Tony Schiena, chairman of the US-based intelligence and security advisory firm MOSAIC, told Sputnik.

"The war in Ukraine has not translated into the kind of profitable opportunity for private military companies that one might expect in other conflict zones," Schiena said. "Typically, in regions where PMCs are incorporated into national defense strategies, they benefit from clear budgetary allocations and government contracts. However, in Ukraine, the situation deviates from this model."

Schiena said that private contractors in Ukraine are mostly operating independently of the Ukrainian government, as there is currently no dedicated budget for foreign military companies within the Ukrainian military budget.

Since opportunities for PMCs in Ukraine rely on private investments, they are susceptible to the fluctuations and uncertainties of private financial backing, influenced by varying political and economic interests, the former South African intelligence operative said.

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However, the demand for private military contractors could change with the recent proposed legislative changes advocating for the creation of international defense companies in Ukraine, Schiena said.

"Looking forward, the role of PMCs could expand temporarily to fill gaps in manpower ahead of the anticipated [Russian] summer offensive, as Ukraine works to bolster its military ranks," Schiena said. "However, it remains unclear whether the Ukrainian government has the financial resources to sustain such contracts extensively."

The legislation could potentially formalize the role of PMCs and align their activities more closely with national security objectives and potentially stabilize their financial prospects within the country, he added.

However, the Russian offensive could be chaotic for the Ukrainian military, even though it is better prepared than it was in the early stages of the conflict, he added.

"While the immediate future for private military contractors in Ukraine does not necessarily indicate a surge in demand, legislative changes and ongoing military developments could reshape the operational landscape significantly," Schiena said.

Schiena pointed out that insights gathered from various online chat rooms suggest that potential foreign contractors considering going to Ukraine are discouraged by descriptions of harsh conditions and operational frustrations, making it unlikely there will be a significant increase in the number of private contractors going to the country.

"Reports from the field often highlight disorganization and challenging conditions, contributing to a less welcoming environment for foreign contractors compared to the early stages of the conflict," he said.

Schiena also noted that most private military contractors operating in Ukraine are not primarily engaged in direct combat on the frontline, but they have played key roles in non-combat operations in the country, such as evacuating families from danger zones.