Ukraine should hope for a "land-for-peace conclusion to combat," retired US Admiral and former NATO Supreme Allied Commander James Stavridis has argued.
After the Kiev regime's much-heralded counteroffensive failed, even the delivery of F-16 fighter jets – promised sometime next year – is not likely to pull off a "real game change," Stavridis wrote for Bloomberg.
He urged Ukraine to resign itself to the fact that it will not manage to seize the new Russian territories, such as the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics or the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions.
Accordingly, the former commander drew parallels with the outcome of the Korean War, which ended with an armistice in 1953, and suggested that Ukraine should aim for the "South Korean scenario" as its best bet.
"This will probably bog down into a frozen conflict; the sooner large combat operations stop, the sooner the Ukrainians will begin to reconstruct," Stavridis wrote.
He laid out his vision of what steps Kiev should take, including that Ukraine should be willing to negotiate a land-for-peace end to the conflict.
"So three lessons of Korea pertain for Ukraine: find the funds for reconstruction as rapidly as possible; construct real and enduring security guarantees; and be willing to negotiate a land-for-peace conclusion to combat," Stavridis said.
"That is a realistic scenario," claimed Stavridis.
According to Stavridis, Western firms are already eying staking out their claims to "postwar construction activities in Ukraine," in such aspects as "mass communications, electric power facilities, water treatment and new residential development."
And as to where the money for all of that would come from, the ex-general had a ready answered that "the potential availability of hundreds of billions of dollars in Russian funds that are under sanction in the West."
The overall value of frozen Russian sovereign assets in Europe since the Ukraine conflict escalated is estimated at 211 billion euros ($223 billion). While Brussels has repeatedly warned it intends to tap into these assets for the benefit of Ukraine, the bloc has so far failed to invent a legal mechanism for doing so.
Pundits interviewed by Sputnik have explained that this is nothing but "wishful thinking," adding that "it would be a sheer violation of property rights."
Nevertheless, the ex-commander waxed lyrical in his article, enthusing that a "Korean-style miracle of reconstruction" could be "on the horizon for Ukraine."
As for obtaining security guarantees, that would mean North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) membership for Ukraine, James Stavridis argued, yet again citing the example of South Korea, which holds Major Non-NATO Ally status with the US.
Ukraine could be brought into the alliance even without the new Russian regions, according to Stavridis.
Russia launched its special military operation in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, after the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics (DPR and LPR) appealed for help in defending themselves against Ukrainian provocations. On September 30, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin and the heads of the DPR and LPR, as well as Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, signed agreements on the accession of these territories to Russia, following referendums that showed that an overwhelming majority of the local population supported becoming part of Russia.
Incidentally, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Former Secretary General of NATO, similarly proposed that Ukraine join the alliance, but that Article 5 of the Washington Treaty should not apply to the new Russian territories, media reported, citing Ukrainian media.
The talk about likely scenarios for an end to the Ukrainian conflict comes in the wake of a report that claimed "quiet conversations" were ongoing between US and European officials on the one hand, and the Ukrainian government on the other, about possible peace negotiations with Russia. Furthermore, these discussions have touched upon concessions Ukraine might need to agree to if any deal is to be possible, according to current and former senior Washington officials cited in a US report.
However, regarding "peace" talks with Ukraine, Moscow has repeatedly indicated that it is ready for negotiations, but Kiev has introduced a ban on them at a legislative level. Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov emphasized at the UN General Assembly in September that Moscow would not consider any proposals of a ceasefire, "because the one time we did consider it, you [Kiev] deceived us." Weighing in on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's 10-point "Peace Formula," Sergey Lavrov noted it is not even remotely realistic.
More recently, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia will continue its special military operation in the absence of efforts to resolve the Ukrainian conflict via diplomatic means. Ukraine needs to understand that it can not achieve victory on the battlefield, the spokesman added.