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Passing Kenya's Anti-LGBTQ Bill Threatens Economic Crisis Due to Reliance on Western Donors: Expert

17:24, 10 October 2023

This summer, a member of Kenya's parliament introduced the so-called "Family Protection Bill", which seeks to outlaw homosexuality, same-sex marriage, and prescriptions or procedures for gender reassignment, among other things.

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According to a report by Professor Fred Ogola, an economist and social scientist, the passage of conservative laws against LGBTQ activities in Kenya could have numerous implications for the East African country's economy.

According to the expert, if Kenyan President William Ruto approves the Family Protection Bill proposed by Homa Bay County MP Peter Kaluma, Kenya could face a significant economic impact estimated at Sh4.186 trillion (about US$28 billion).

"Kenya depends a lot on foreign donors, especially the EU and USA. These donors have given pre-conditions for their continuous support, and one of their conditions – unfortunately – is 'support for the LGBTQ' [...] Violating any of these conditions may lead to withholding of financial support. Therefore, if the bill is signed into law, Kenya must be ready to lose around Sh4.186 trillion (≈ US $28 billion)," stated Professor Ogola as cited by media.

The expert noted that the potential economic impact could be accompanied by a change in investor sentiment.

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He described the East African nation as enjoying Sh446.7 billion (≈ US$3 billion) per year "in tangible benefits to Kenya's economy and development from the US" and "Sh713.2 billion (≈ US$4.8 billion) in development assistance from the European Union to Kenya under the Joint Cooperation Strategy 2018-2022".

"Sh2.4 billion humanitarian funding given by EU, Sh238 million (≈ US$1.6 million) for disaster preparedness given by EU in 2023, Sh148.9 billion (≈ US$1 billion) approved by IMF for Kenya in July 2023, Sh82 billion (≈ US$550 million) approved by IMF to support Kenya's efforts in building resilience to climate change, approximately Sh11 billion (≈ US$73.9 million) for implementing the bill and billions for covering the loss in tourism sector due to negative perception towards Kenya by the international community," the professor explained.

The legal regulation of LGBTQ in the African region has already led to Western organizations and governments imposing sanctions or reducing their financial support to countries that do not comply with their conditions.

In late May, Uganda's Anti-Homosexuality Bill 2023 was passed, which the government says is aimed at defending the nation's cultural, religious and family values. The legislation caused an outcry in Western capitals; the World Bank called it a "violation of human rights" and suspended loans to Uganda.