In recent months reports emerged that Indian companies had been buying cheap Russian crude, refining it and selling it to Europe competitively. In an interview with the media published earlier in the day, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said that the EU should take urgent measures against the import of Indian petroleum products that were made from Russian oil.
"Practically, Europe can do nothing against India or the Indian refineries which sell refined products from Russian crude oil to customers in Europe. It is impossible to carry out effective control over these refined products: Indian refiners can mix crude oils to a point and anyway, once the oil has been refined, it is impossible to know where the products come from," Ernst said.
The expert does not even believe that Moscow has granted discounts on its oil deliveries around the world, explaining that Russia has created a fleet of tankers and turned away from European customers as new refineries are popping up in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf. As a result, European pressure has less and less effect.
"The EU is already alienating China, let's not talk about Russia or Brazil, Saudi Arabia and South Africa. Adding India to countries refusing Western leadership would be very counterproductive. The EU cannot afford it. The era of European sanctions is coming to an end," the expert continued, adding that, if pressed by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi would claim that European customers receive products made from "non-Russian" oil.
The expert added that it is very difficult to trace oil shipments since papers can be changed, crude oil can be transferred from one tanker to another and refineries can mix crude oil from different sources. In addition, the West cannot see the contracts made between Russian exporters and their customers in the world anymore due to the financial sanctions and the shutting down of the SWIFT system for Russian banks.
Ernst thinks that the oil sanctions can slowly be forgotten and that the only thing that Russia could be worried about is strikes against refining and storage facilities, and export terminals. He warned that damage from such attacks is very difficult to repair and that this could be tempting for Kiev and its allies in the face of an escalation in Ukraine.
In December 2022, the G7 countries, Australia, and the EU imposed a price cap of $60 per barrel on Russian crude oil transported by sea, blocking the transport of oil bought at higher prices. In retaliation, Russia prohibited selling its oil to countries which support the price cap mechanism.
The European Union has imposed 10 packages of sanctions against Russia since the onset of Moscow's military operation in Ukraine in February 2022. Borrell and other EU officials have admitted on multiple occasions over the past seven months that the bloc is running out of avenues to impose any more sanctions against Moscow and called instead for a focus on implementing the sanctions that are already in place. Russia is one of the countries that are staunchly opposed to unilateral sanctions in international relations.