Black Sea Grain Exports Will Return to Normal if Russia's Conditions Are Met: Expert

15:53, 10 May 2023
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The Black Sea Grain Initiative was launched in Istanbul in July 2022 by Russia, Turkiye, Ukraine, and the UN for 120 days. The deal's objective was to establish a secure way to export grain, food-related products, and fertilizers from Ukrainian ports to global markets. The deal was extended in March, and is set to expire May 18.
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Exports of grain from Black Sea ports will fully return to normal only when the United States and the European Union "recognize and accept" the fact that sanctions against Russia are "useless," argued Mei Xinyu, a senior researcher at the Chinese Ministry of Commerce's Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation.

"In the current geopolitical situation, I think it is unlikely that decision-makers in the European Union and Ukraine will accept Russia's proposal," Mei told Sputnik, adding that he believes that the grain export program will return to normal if Russia's conditions are met over time.

The Chinese expert acknowledged that Moscow's conditions are "reasonable," noting that the resumption of grain exports from the Black Sea is beneficial for the stabilization of Ukraine, the EU and the international grain market as a whole.
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May 18 is the deadline for the Black Sea Grain Initiative, commonly known as the Grain Deal. The deal is aimed at ensuring the flow of grain exports from both Russia and Ukraine, the world's top grain producers through the Black Sea to the international market in order to avoid a global food crisis.
Earlier, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the terms of the agreement had not been fulfilled as far as the Russian agricultural sector was concerned.
One of these conditions is the connection of the Russian Agricultural Bank to the Swift international payment system in order to carry out transactions. Russia was cut off from the system as part of Western sanctions after the beginning of the special military operation in Ukraine.
According to Mei, Ukraine used to export grain mainly through ports on the Black Sea coast. However, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has disrupted grain exports from the Black Sea. As a result, Ukraine has shifted its focus to exporting grain to Baltic Sea ports through Poland and other countries to the north. In addition, Ukraine exports grain via truck routes through Central and Eastern Europe.

"As a result, the cost of grain transportation and transportation times have increased," he argued. "In addition, due to various factors, the entry of cheap Ukrainian grain into the grain market of Eastern European countries disrupted the local grain market and caused chaos."

Mei added that for Ukraine, grain exports via the Black Sea will be the most convenient and will also contribute to the preservation of important enterprises in related industries.
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Talks are currently ongoing in Turkiye for the extension of the deal. On Wednesday, Russia's Ambassador to Turkiye Aleksey Erkhov said that Turkiye understands Moscow's concerns about the grain deal and is trying to influence partners on the issue.

"Turkiye treats Russia's concerns with the highest degree of understanding. And even during the relevant contacts, it is trying to influence the positions of our other partners in a constructive way," Erkhov told Russian media, adding that Moscow's partners in the negotiations still have time to reconsider their positions.

Russia, Ukraine, Turkiye and the UN reached an agreement on July 22, 2022, to provide a humanitarian maritime corridor for ships carrying food and fertilizer exports from Ukrainian Black Sea ports. On March 18, 2023, Russia extended the deal for 60 days until May 18.

The Black Sea Grain Initiative is an integral part of a package agreement. The second part - the Russia-UN memorandum, designed for three years – envisions the unblocking of Russian exports of food and fertilizers, the reconnection of the Russian Agricultural Bank to SWIFT, the resumption of supplies of agricultural machinery, spare parts and services, the restoration of the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline and a number of other measures. Moscow says this part of the package has not been implemented yet.
RussiaUkrainegrainGrain dealBlack Sea Grain Initiativeanti-Russian sanctionsUS sanctionssanctionsUkraine crisisInternational