Africa to Become World's Fastest Growing Region in Population: Estimates

The Mo Ibrahim Foundation has predicted that Africa will be the fastest-growing economy in the world by 2027 in its annual report titled "Global Africa. Africa in the World and the World in Africa".

According to the report, based on the IMF data, Africa’s GDP growth rate should outstrip the global average in each of the next five years, being second only to Asia.

The report stated that six out of the ten fastest-growing economies in 2023 are African: Libya (17.9% GDP growth rate), Senegal (8.1%), Niger (7.3%), Democratic Republic of Congo (6.7%), Rwanda (6.7%) and Côte d'Ivoire (6.5%).

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), created in 2021, is the largest free trade agreement in the world by number of countries and covers 1.4 billion people. It surpasses the EU single market, USMCA and Mercosur combined (1.27 billion people in total) in terms of total population coverage.

The report evaluated the continent's demographics as a key resource for development and cited the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) in highlighting that Africa is the world's youngest continent and projected to be the only region whose population will grow significantly from 2060.

"While Asia will remain the world’s most populous region in 2100, it will begin to decrease from 2060. North America and Oceania will also continue to grow but Africa’s population is estimated to be the only one to grow significantly," the report explained.

In 2023, Africa is the second-most-populous world region, making up almost 20% of the world's population with 1.4 billion people. By 2100, Africa’s youth will represent almost half of the world’s youth (44%), UNDESA stressed.

Across the rest of the world, the population will decrease. Asia's will decline by 285 million, while Europe's population is expected to shrink by 150 million. Latin America and the Caribbean will decline by 50 million people, the report said.

In addition, the foundation noted that Africa accounts for over 70% of global cobalt production, and 90% of the world’s platinum group metal reserves, both critical to green technologies. As such, without Africa's contribution, there can be no transition to green technology.

"According to the World Bank, in order to meet the expected rise in global demand [for alternative energy], production of minerals and metals such as lithium, graphite and cobalt will need to increase by nearly 500% by 2050. This cannot be achieved without Africa’s resources," the report highlighted.

As for financing, Africa's rising public debt levels are still lower than other world regions.

"In absolute terms, African governments have less debt than any other world region. The total debt stock owed to creditors by African governments equates to just under $2 trillion. This is less than the German government’s expenditure for 2023 alone," wrote the foundation, citing data from the IMF.

Yet eight of the nine countries listed by the IMF as being in "debt-distress" in 2023 are African.

The Mo Ibrahim Foundation prepares a report with facts and figures about Africa every year on the eve of the so-called "Ibrahim Governance Weekend," a forum that convenes prominent African political and business leaders, representatives from civil society, multilateral and regional institutions as well as Africa's major international partners to debate issues of critical importance to Africa, according to the foundation's website.

This year, the forum was held in Nairobi, Kenya, from April 28 to 30 with discussions centered around the theme of "Global Africa." During the forum, Mo Ibrahim met with the President of Kenya William Ruto, who gave a speech about the role of African governments in promoting peace and stability on the continent, and the need for stronger regional and international partnerships to address common challenges.

Africa to Become World's Fastest-Growing Economy, Mo Ibrahim Foundation Estimates