Grain Deal at Risk as West Refuses to Fulfill Russia's Conditions, Says Expert

The West sees the Russian terms of the Black Sea Grain Initiative - commonly known as the Grain Deal - as unprofitable and does not intend to fulfill them, Andrey Suzdaltsev, a political scientist and associate professor at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow, told Sputnik.

"Formally, there are no restrictions and sanctions against the supply of Russian grain and Russian fertilizers. There are sanctions against the infrastructure of these supplies. Nevertheless, there are a number of claims from Russia," Suzdaltsev said. "These claims have to do with the insurance of supplies, the search for cargo and access to ports and so on."

According to the expert, Moscow has six main conditions, each of which is "somehow mutually reinforcing". He noted that one of these conditions is the connection of the Russian Agricultural Bank to the Swift international payment system, "because it is necessary to carry out transactions". Russia was cut off from the system as part of Western sanctions after the beginning of the special military operation in Ukraine.

Another condition set by Russia is the safety of the Tolyatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline, which pumps the crucial fertilizer component from Russia through Ukraine for export, Suzdaltsev said, adding that the demands were made at the Russian Foreign Ministry's level. However, according to him, "nothing is being done by the West" – and that is why Moscow is thinking of "stopping the deal after all".

"The main losers would be Western speculators who exported this cheap grain and sold it to countries that needed it. At the same time, as you know, only 3 percent of countries with food shortages received this grain directly," the professor pointed out.

Suzdaltsev suggested that Moscow feels the deal is unhelpful for the Russian side since the money Ukraine earns from grain exports is used to buy Western weapons aimed at Russia.

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Another crucial aspect is the reason for the Russian military operation in Ukraine, which stipulates that the Black Sea ports affiliated with the grain agreement should not be targeted, the political scientist argued, adding: "Therefore, Russia refrains from conducting military activities in these areas." The agreement allows for the full operation of the ports and the city of Odessa, as there is no ongoing war in that region.

"Of course, Ukraine is not only interested in selling grain – it also gets the money it pays for weapons – but with the present deal, Kiev is calm about the fate of its coast and ports, especially the port of Odessa. In other words, these are serious concessions on the part of Russia," he said.

To emphasize his point, Suzdaltsev pointed out that Ukraine's grain exports are expected to fall by half this year, according to estimates. The decline is due not only to the ongoing fighting in the most fertile areas, but also to difficulties in buying pesticides and fertilizers and paying for machinery.

Ukraine exported about 25Mln tons of grain from 22 July last year until now, which is half of the amount it managed to export in 2021. It is expected that this year's export volume will not exceed half of last year's.