An alleged leak of a trove of classified US military documents posted on social media sites over the past few weeks has prompted the Department of Justice to open a criminal probe.
US investigators are described by media reports as juggling several possible theories regarding the sources of the leaks related to American military plans in Ukraine, sensitive information linked to China and the Middle East, as well as details about Washington's intelligence gathering efforts. Theories are said to range from a disgruntled employee from within the intelligence community to an insider targeting US national security interests.
Despite the fact that a portion of the documents has since been widely covered by media outlets, the exact nature of the “leaked Pentagon papers” remains unclear.
Here is what we know about the classified Pentagon docs leak so far.
Where Did Alleged Secret Docs First Appear?
Documents labeled "Secret," "Top Secret," and marked "NOFORN," which means they are not intended for release to foreign nationals, are believed to date from late February and early March 2023. However, they only began to make the rounds on social media platforms and apps in the past few weeks. They were purportedly first posted on a Minecraft channel on Discord, a messaging platform popular with gamers, and the noticeboard 4Chan. Subsequently, the documents made their way to more mainstream outlets like Twitter, YouTube, and Telegram. The story was broken by The New York Times.
According to the outlet, a major part of the documents are photographed images of classified Pentagon briefing reports. Furthermore, it was added that they seemed to have been folded before they were later photographed.
During an interview with Sputnik, international relations and security analyst Mark Sleboda suggested the leaks likely come “from the American side or someone within the American side.” The analyst noted that some of the leaked papers “confirm information that we really already knew,” and suggested taking the leaked info "with a grain of salt."
What Are the Leaked Pentagon Documents About?
Some batches of the leaked documents reportedly contain detailed information about US military plans in Ukraine, where Russia has been conducting a special military operation.
The docs, dated March 1, 2023, reportedly contained information about anticipated weapons deliveries, US estimates of Ukrainians and Russians killed in the conflagration, along with force strength estimates. The documents ostensibly reflect the US and Ukrainian perspectives of what is needed for a counteroffensive. Furthermore, possible scenarios for deploying US forces to the region were also believed to be laid out in the trove of papers. US media reported that the documents show the expenditure rate of US-supplied HIMARS munitions, which has previously not been disclosed by the Pentagon.
The Ukrainian military command has amended some military plans due to the leak of classified US intelligence documents, US media reported on Monday, citing a source close to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The media did not specify what has been altered.
The apparent classified information about US and NATO plans for Ukraine might have been leaked by US military and government officials frustrated with the Biden administration's "demand for a US victory against Russia, where none is possible,” Karen Kwiatkowski, retired US Air Force lieutenant colonel and former analyst for the US Department of Defense, told Sputnik.
“It could also be frustration by intelligence producers inside the Pentagon or elsewhere with the political demands for shaped and tailored output, an output that eliminates researched and objective analysis in order to align with and support the political desires of the administration,” Kwiatkowski opined.
The ex-analyst for the US Department of Defense pointed out that Ukrainian troops were essentially being “sacrificed” at the behest of the Kiev regime’s “political masters,” and the current leak “may be aimed at US politicians and the American people, and supports their growing skepticism about Biden's proxy war.”
Philip Giraldi, a former CIA station chief who now serves as executive director of a non-profit anti-war advocacy group the Council for the National Interest, told Sputnik that the materials, some of which are marked "highly classified," were "presumably leaked by someone senior in the hierarchy of the Pentagon." He added that the docs seemingly assembled for a "military audience" feature "limited tactical information."
"Russia would only benefit by their appearance because it would underline the carelessness of the Pentagon in its handling of sensitive information. Otherwise, I see no benefit," Giraldi mused.
As for the leak's timing, it could be taken to indicate that some people in the US "intelligence/military pipeline" are getting tired of the "pointless support for Ukraine" and seek to "embarrass the Biden administration into cutting back its efforts," the expert contended.
Weighing in on the fact that a series of leaked briefing documents were ostensibly prepared for General Mark Milley, former US Marine Corps intelligence officer Scott Ritter suggested that if the leak came from within the US military, it would suggest that there are some who oppose a looming Ukrainian offensive and believe that a compromise of sensitive information pertaining to preparations might help forestall this action.
"Others might believe that the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff might be hesitating in giving a Ukrainian spring offensive the green light and sought to release the material to force General Milley’s hand," Ritter said.
How Did Washington's Allies React to Leaked Pentagon Docs?
In addition to Ukraine, the leaked documents also reportedly contain sensitive information about Washington's security interests in various corners of the world, as well as its intelligence gathering efforts in China and the Middle East. This batch of documents is said to include detailed maps and briefing slides. One slide, said to have been dated February 23, was reportedly labeled "Secret/NoForn."
Thus, in excerpts published on social media, there are reportedly at least two discussions about South Korea's deliberations on whether to provide the US with artillery shells for use in Ukraine, violating Seoul’s policy on providing lethal aid. South Korean officials were ostensibly worried that President Joe Biden would call his South Korean counterpart Yoon Suk-yeol in order to pressure Seoul to deliver the shells in question. Another document, allegedly from the CIA, revealed that the US had found out about the internal debate in South Korea from “a signals intelligence report,” a term used for intercepted communications.
As for Israel, a leaked document, labeled top secret, said that in February, senior officials of the country's intelligence agency “advocated for Mossad officials and Israeli citizens to protest the new Israeli government’s proposed judicial reforms, including several explicit calls to action that decried the Israeli government, according to signals intelligence.”
On April 9, the office of Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vehemently rejected this claim.
“The Mossad and its serving senior personnel have not engaged in the issue of the demonstrations at all and are dedicated to the value of service to the state that has guided the Mossad since its founding,” the statement said.
One batch of leaked Pentagon documents purportedly contained a slide that hinted at the presence of a small contingent of under 100 special operations personnel from NATO members France, the US, Britain, and Latvia allegedly active in Ukraine. This quickly prompted France’s Defense Ministry to deny that there were any French soldiers on Ukrainian soil.
“There are no French forces engaged in operation in Ukraine. The documents cited do not come from the French armies. We do not comment on documents whose source is uncertain,” a spokesperson for the minister of the armed forces, Sébastien Lecornu, was cited as saying.
What Have Experts Said About Leaked Secret Pentagon Docs?
Once news of the alleged Pentagon document leak broke, experts voiced concern about the potential risks to US national security. The leaks represent a significant breach in security that could impact Ukrainian military planning, former senior Pentagon official Mick Mulroy reportedly said. While defense officials have admitted that the leaked documents are legitimate, they have indicated that the files appear to have been tampered with, as some casualty estimates regarding the Ukraine conflict have been "overstated."
National Security Council spokesman, Retired Rear Adm. John Kirby, warned that such leaks of classified documents could potentially put American troops and allies at risk.
"I think it's very dangerous anytime you have unauthorized disclosures of sensitive and classified information. It can put not only our troops, but also our partners and allies, in harm's way," Kirby said.
Ukraine rejected the allegedly “fictional” docs as “Russian disinformation.”
On April 7, Friday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov commented on reports about the leaks, saying that Russia has no doubts the US and NATO are directly or indirectly involved in the Ukraine conflict, with the level of their involvement gradually rising over time. On April 10, Peskov remarked on the allegations that Moscow was behind the leak, stressing that the tendency to blame everything on Russia is "a common disease."
What Happens Next?
As US defense and intelligence officials embark upon probes to discover the source of the alleged leaks, the revelations "will have zero impact on the actual conduct of the conflict," according to US defense analyst Scott Ritter.
"Besides creating Internet buzz for a few days," the leaks will have a "similarly minimal impact on public opinion," he surmised.
"The fact remains that Ukraine is currently hard-pressed to conduct a successful attack capable of pushing Russian forces from out the territory they currently hold. Speculation will at some point soon yield to reality, and the truth will become known as to the capabilities of both parties to this conflict. Perceptions oftentimes create their own reality, but only in a vacuum. Facts are the ultimate judge, and the time to produce facts regarding Ukraine’s anticipated spring offensive is fast approaching. No Internet leak of documents can change this," Ritter wrote.